By Dr Bill Dixon
‘Statistics are like politicians … they tell lies.’ These are the words of ‘Michael’ reacting online to a story in the Daily Mail about the revelation that police forces up and down the country have been undercounting the most serious types of violent crime. With his very 21st century distrust of politicians it is ironic that ‘Michael’s’ words echo those of the 19th century Prime Minister, Benjamin Disraeli, who once said that there were ‘lies, damned lies and statistics’.
But is such scepticism justified? Are the crime statistics published by the Home Office every quarter, and then for a full year each July, really just ‘damn lies’ – or worse? It’s almost second nature for criminologists to be critical of crime statistics, whatever their source and ‘Michael’ would have been nearer the mark if he’d said that crime statistics are like cigarettes: they should always carry a health warning. Crimes can’t be counted like sheep because what counts as crime is both constantly changing – think of homosexuality and rape in marriage. And, at least for criminologists, they are endlessly controversial.
According to the Daily Mail, the admission that the police have been ‘downplaying’ (note the none-too-subtle hint of a conspiracy in that word) serious violence has dealt a ‘devastating blow’ to public confidence in official crime figures. Later in the story Shadow Home Secretary, Dominic Grieve, weighs in with the view that the figures ‘fatally undermine government spin that violent crime [is] getting better’. ‘If you can’t count a problem’, he adds, ‘You can’t combat it’.
Crime statistics, as criminologists like to put it, are socially constructed. In other words, they are the outcome of very complicated social processes and should never be (mis)treated as ‘hard facts’. It should come as no surprise then as many as 17 of England and Wales’ 43 police forces have been categorising offences involving intent to cause grievous bodily harm where no such harm is actually caused as ‘other violence against the person’ rather than as the ‘most serious violence against the person’. Leaving aside the possibility that the Daily Mail and the Shadow Home Secretary might be using this revelation as a handy stick with which to beat the government, what their shock and outrage betrays is not so much a world-weary cynicism about crime statistics but a touching faith in the ability of numbers to reflect social reality. But for ‘government spin’ and the pressure put on police forces to meet crime reduction targets, they seem to believe that crime could be counted accurately, and then combated effectively.
If crime statistics are neither ‘damned lies’ nor ‘hard facts’, what do they tell us? Well, despite the failings documented with such loving care by the Daily Mail, and seized on with such relish by Mr Grieve, they can tell us something. And what they tell us is a rather more optimistic story than headlines about a 22% increase in violent crime might suggest. In fact, the most recent annual figures (for 2007/8) published in July indicate that violent crime, indeed all crime, has fallen by more than 40% since 1995. These statistics, derived from the British Crime Survey (BCS) rather than police figures, rarely make the headlines but almost certainly represent reality more accurately than the fevered imaginings of Opposition politicians and middle market tabloids obsessed with the idea that Britain is an increasingly violent and lawless place.
Like all statistics – and cigarettes – these figures should be treated with caution. But – unlike cigarettes – it would be very foolish to make no use of them at all.
Sources
Read Matthew Hickley’s story about the police under-recording violent crime in the Daily Mail online at http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1079927/Violent-crime-22-Home-Office-admits-police-recording-offences-years.html.
For Home Office crime statistics for the quarter to June 2008, go to http://www.crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/statistics/statistics075.htm.
And for the full year April 2007 to March 2008, go to http://www.crimereduction.homeoffice.gov.uk/statistics/statistics074.htm
Showing posts with label British Crime Survey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label British Crime Survey. Show all posts
Monday, 27 October 2008
Wednesday, 9 July 2008
Knife crime in the news
By Helen Wells
Knife crime has again dominated the news this week as the number of teenagers killed by knives in London since the start of the year reaches 18. A review of news coverage about knife crime from just one day this week reveals a variety of different solutions to the problem being proposed across the Government, opposition, campaign groups and the media itself. Ideas include situational crime prevention, early intervention, and general deterrence and, as such, demonstrate a variety of different assumptions about how and why crime happens and can be prevented from happening. However, there is also some scepticism about what the statistics are ‘really’ telling us about the problem.
David Cameron suggests that prison is the answer for anyone found carrying a knife without good cause. He says “The Government should say not just that there is a presumption you will be prosecuted if you carry a knife, but that there will be a presumptions that you will go to jail. It is not a minor offence. There is no excuse for carrying a knife when you walk out of your door.” However, he also suggests that the breakdown of family life has played a part in the current “epidemic”, and suggests that, as part of his Knife Crime Action Plan, “family measures” should be combined with a clamp down on school discipline and a National Citizens Service scheme – much like national service – for 16 year olds. (The Sun, 7th July 2008)
Cherie Blair, in her role as the Chair of the Street Weapons Commission told the Daily Telegraph that she believes “that there are no quick fixes to solve the problems of gun and knife violence in Britain.” She cautioned that no single policy would “reverse the trend of young people carrying weapons…but an effective response will need action from a wide range of organisations - from central government, the police, local authorities, schools, communities and individuals.” The report of the Street Weapons Commission (link) recommends “rigorous action by the police through intelligence led targeting of 'impact players’, focussing on weapon crime 'hotspots’, and preventing criminal gangs from operating, and so helping remove the glamour and financial rewards of criminality [as well as] more support for voluntary and community groups working on the ground with vulnerable young people”. It, too, believes a combination of enforcement prevention is the answer: “Enforcement has a crucial preventative role in itself that needs to be acknowledged. All ways of dealing with knife and gun crime have an important role to play and there is more to do through all means of tackling the problem - diversion, support and sanction.” (Daily Telegraph, 7th July 2008)
Other reports suggested that hospital and school employees had begun to demand body armour to protect them amid fears of stabbings by members of the public. The Daily Express claimed there has been a “stampede” from doctors, nurses and teachers when they were offered protective vests by a private company. (Daily Express, 7th July 2008)
Elsewhere, suggestions have been made that we need to know more about the problem before we can hope to solve it. Jacqui Smith (Home Secretary) has suggested that hospital staff should be compelled to inform police when patients are treated for stab wounds in the same way that they have to report gunshot wounds. She said that this would help to establish the true scale of knife crime in Britain amid concern that many offences go unreported. (Daily Telegraph, 7th July 2008)
Also sceptical about our level of knowledge about knife crime are most police officers, according to a ‘think-tank report’ reported by the Daily Telegraph. 80% of police officers apparently think that knife crime has got worse in the last five years. The Telegraph reports that “Its findings are in stark contrast with the British Crime Survey, which states that the level of knife crime has remained stable in recent years.”
Of crucial importance here is the fact that the British Crime Survey does not include interviews with under 16s about their experiences of crime. In May this year the BCS launched consultation on the issue of extending its methodology to include under 16’s experiences of victimisation. (www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs08/bcs-consultation-0508.pdf)
Knife crime has again dominated the news this week as the number of teenagers killed by knives in London since the start of the year reaches 18. A review of news coverage about knife crime from just one day this week reveals a variety of different solutions to the problem being proposed across the Government, opposition, campaign groups and the media itself. Ideas include situational crime prevention, early intervention, and general deterrence and, as such, demonstrate a variety of different assumptions about how and why crime happens and can be prevented from happening. However, there is also some scepticism about what the statistics are ‘really’ telling us about the problem.
David Cameron suggests that prison is the answer for anyone found carrying a knife without good cause. He says “The Government should say not just that there is a presumption you will be prosecuted if you carry a knife, but that there will be a presumptions that you will go to jail. It is not a minor offence. There is no excuse for carrying a knife when you walk out of your door.” However, he also suggests that the breakdown of family life has played a part in the current “epidemic”, and suggests that, as part of his Knife Crime Action Plan, “family measures” should be combined with a clamp down on school discipline and a National Citizens Service scheme – much like national service – for 16 year olds. (The Sun, 7th July 2008)
Cherie Blair, in her role as the Chair of the Street Weapons Commission told the Daily Telegraph that she believes “that there are no quick fixes to solve the problems of gun and knife violence in Britain.” She cautioned that no single policy would “reverse the trend of young people carrying weapons…but an effective response will need action from a wide range of organisations - from central government, the police, local authorities, schools, communities and individuals.” The report of the Street Weapons Commission (link) recommends “rigorous action by the police through intelligence led targeting of 'impact players’, focussing on weapon crime 'hotspots’, and preventing criminal gangs from operating, and so helping remove the glamour and financial rewards of criminality [as well as] more support for voluntary and community groups working on the ground with vulnerable young people”. It, too, believes a combination of enforcement prevention is the answer: “Enforcement has a crucial preventative role in itself that needs to be acknowledged. All ways of dealing with knife and gun crime have an important role to play and there is more to do through all means of tackling the problem - diversion, support and sanction.” (Daily Telegraph, 7th July 2008)
Other reports suggested that hospital and school employees had begun to demand body armour to protect them amid fears of stabbings by members of the public. The Daily Express claimed there has been a “stampede” from doctors, nurses and teachers when they were offered protective vests by a private company. (Daily Express, 7th July 2008)
Elsewhere, suggestions have been made that we need to know more about the problem before we can hope to solve it. Jacqui Smith (Home Secretary) has suggested that hospital staff should be compelled to inform police when patients are treated for stab wounds in the same way that they have to report gunshot wounds. She said that this would help to establish the true scale of knife crime in Britain amid concern that many offences go unreported. (Daily Telegraph, 7th July 2008)
Also sceptical about our level of knowledge about knife crime are most police officers, according to a ‘think-tank report’ reported by the Daily Telegraph. 80% of police officers apparently think that knife crime has got worse in the last five years. The Telegraph reports that “Its findings are in stark contrast with the British Crime Survey, which states that the level of knife crime has remained stable in recent years.”
Of crucial importance here is the fact that the British Crime Survey does not include interviews with under 16s about their experiences of crime. In May this year the BCS launched consultation on the issue of extending its methodology to include under 16’s experiences of victimisation. (www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs08/bcs-consultation-0508.pdf)
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